Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Pitt @ West Virginia PITT @ WVU

PITTSBURGH

PITTPITT

2-0  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 3:30 PM ET
Milan Puskar Stadium
View Odds Details →

WEST VIRGINIA

WEST VIRGINIAWVU

1-1  |  Home

31
Key Game
Josh Guerrier
KEY GAME

Josh Guerrier

#14 | Defensive Back
@
Landen Livingston
KEY GAME

Landen Livingston

#67 | Offensive Lineman
Player
Josh Guerrier None-None
Landen Livingston None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PITT
100%
📊
WEST VIRGINIA
0%
PITT --
WEST VIRGINIA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
WEST VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (West Virginia)
PittPITT (-3.5) 0 West VirginiaWVU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pitt Cover

1.9%

West Virginia Cover

98.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WVU -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WVU)

PITT By 1-6 points

1.2%

PITT By 7-13 points

0.4%

WVU By 1-6 points

3.3%

WVU By 7-13 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
13
PITTSBURGH
42
WEST VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
24
PITTSBURGH
27
WEST VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI West Virginia Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim West Virginia Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI West Virginia (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
C
Sim West Virginia (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 PITT @ WVU 24 - 31
Sep 14, 2024 WVU @ PITT 34 - 38
Sep 16, 2023 PITT @ WVU 6 - 17
Sep 1, 2022 WVU @ PITT 31 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.5% more
West Virginia: 196.5 vs Pittsburgh: 143.0
Turnovers (L5) +21.1% more
West Virginia: 2.0 vs Pittsburgh: 1.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.5 vs West Virginia: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +9.9% more
Pittsburgh: 22.7 vs West Virginia: 20.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PITT Score 13.0 24
WVU Score 42.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.5 / 22.7 28.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 196.5 / 143.0 174.0 / 46.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.29 / 0.24
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 416.2 / 421.6 434.0 / 349.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 1.6 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PITT Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +7.5
WVU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PITT Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +7.5
WVU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
PITT
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.5
WVU
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WVU
PITT
WVU
PITT
ML
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
25% 1-3-1
80% 4-1
25% 1-3-1
20% 1-4
TTL
50% 2-2-1
20% 1-4
0% 0-4-1
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Bryce Young Returns to Tuscaloosa as ESPN College GameDay Guest …
yahoo 5 hours, 44 minutes ago
Rodriguez: Roster Turnover Slowing WVU's Progress
theintermountain 18 hours, 10 minutes ago
Mountaineers' Defensive Coordinator Zac Alley Loses Sleep Over S…
observer_reporter 1 day, 23 hours ago
College Football Legend Dennis Franchione Passes Away at 75
aggieswire 2 days, 5 hours ago
AP Top 25 Shakeup: Projecting the New College Football Rankings …
si 4 days, 17 hours ago