Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Incarnate Word @ UTSA UIW @ UTSA

INCARNATE WORD

INCARNATE WORDUIW

1-1  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 3:30 PM ET
Alamodome
View Odds Details →

UTSA

UTSAUTSA

0-2  |  Home

48
Key Game
Jabrelle Asberry
KEY GAME

Jabrelle Asberry

#22 | Linebacker
@
Caile Hogan
KEY GAME

Caile Hogan

#30 | Punter
Player
Jabrelle Asberry None-None
Caile Hogan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
INCARNATE WORD
100%
📊
UTSA
0%
INCARNATE WORD --
UTSA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
71.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
UTSA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (UTSA)
Incarnate WordUIW (-3.5) 0 UTSAUTSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Incarnate Word Cover

5.0%

UTSA Cover

95.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UTSA -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTSA)

UIW By 1-6 points

2.9%

UIW By 7-13 points

1.3%

UTSA By 1-6 points

6.5%

UTSA By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
24
INCARNATE WORD
47
UTSA
Simulated Score
17
INCARNATE WORD
48
UTSA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UTSA Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UTSA Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UTSA (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
C
Sim UTSA (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 71.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 UIW @ UTSA 20 - 48
Aug 31, 2019 UIW @ UTSA 7 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +112.8% more
UTSA: 221.0 vs Incarnate Word: 103.9
Total Yards (L5) +13.3% more
UTSA: 450.0 vs Incarnate Word: 397.1
First Downs (L5) +8.3% more
UTSA: 21.6 vs Incarnate Word: 20.0
Turnovers (L5) +56.4% more
Incarnate Word: 1.8 vs UTSA: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UIW Score 24.0 20
UTSA Score 47.0 48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.6 / 20.0 22.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 221.0 / 103.9 199.0 / 33.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 450.0 / 397.1 442.0 / 357.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.8 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UIW
--
UTSA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UIW
--
UTSA Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UIW
--
UTSA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTSA
UIW
UTSA
UIW
ML
75% 3-1
100% 1-0
60% 3-2
100% 1-0
ATS
50% 2-2
0% 0-1
40% 2-3
0% 0-1
TTL
50% 2-2
0% 0-1
40% 2-3
0% 0-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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