Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oregon St @ Texas Tech ORST @ TTU

OREGON STATE

OREGON STORST

0-2  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 3:30 PM ET
Jones AT&T Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS TECH

TEXAS TECHTTU

2-0  |  Home

45
Key Game
Caleb Ojeda
KEY GAME

Caleb Ojeda

#28 | Place kicker
@
Ian Hershey
KEY GAME

Ian Hershey

#37 | Punter
Player
Caleb Ojeda None-None
Ian Hershey None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OREGON ST
100%
📊
TEXAS TECH
0%
OREGON ST --
TEXAS TECH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
93.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
TEXAS TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Texas Tech)
Oregon StORST (-3.5) 0 Texas TechTTU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oregon St Cover

26.0%

Texas Tech Cover

74.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TTU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TTU)

ORST By 1-6 points

11.5%

ORST By 7-13 points

8.0%

TTU By 1-6 points

15.7%

TTU By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
42
OREGON STATE
51
TEXAS TECH
Simulated Score
24
OREGON STATE
27
TEXAS TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texas Tech Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Texas Tech Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texas Tech (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
C
Sim Texas Tech (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 93.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 TTU @ ORST 35 - 24
Sep 13, 2025 ORST @ TTU 14 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +83.7% more
Texas Tech: 222.3 vs Oregon State: 121.0
Total Yards (L5) +36.0% more
Texas Tech: 553.6 vs Oregon State: 406.9
First Downs (L5) +23.6% more
Texas Tech: 27.8 vs Oregon State: 22.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Texas Tech: 0.5 vs Oregon State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORST Score 42.0 14
TTU Score 51.0 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 27.8 / 22.5 30.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 222.3 / 121.0 121.0 / 8.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.6 / 0.41
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 553.6 / 406.9 599.0 / 289.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.7 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORST
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.4 ATS +/-: +15.7
TTU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 18.6 ATS +/-: -6.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORST Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 13.4 ATS +/-: +15.7
TTU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 18.6 ATS +/-: -6.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ORST
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.1
TTU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TTU
ORST
TTU
ORST
ML
100% 5-0
100% 4-0
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
ATS
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
TTL
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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