Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Washington St @ North Texas WSU @ UNT

WASHINGTON STATE

WASHINGTON STWSU

2-0  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 3:30 PM ET
DATCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTH TEXAS

NORTH TEXASUNT

2-0  |  Home

59
Key Game
Jack Stevens
KEY GAME

Jack Stevens

#38 | Place kicker
@
Bryce Garza
KEY GAME

Bryce Garza

#14 | Safety
Player
Jack Stevens None-None
Bryce Garza None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WASHINGTON ST
0%
📊
NORTH TEXAS
100%
WASHINGTON ST --
NORTH TEXAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
86.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
WASHINGTON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Washington State)
Washington StWSU (-3.5) 0 North TexasUNT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Washington St Cover

96.8%

North Texas Cover

3.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WSU -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSU)

WSU By 1-6 points

4.8%

WSU By 7-13 points

10.4%

UNT By 1-6 points

1.9%

UNT By 7-13 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
56
WASHINGTON STATE
30
NORTH TEXAS
Simulated Score
20
WASHINGTON STATE
34
NORTH TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Washington St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim North Texas Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Washington St (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -26.0
C
Sim North Texas (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 86.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 WSU @ UNT 10 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +53.3% more
North Texas: 162.8 vs Washington State: 106.2
First Downs (L5) +27.5% more
North Texas: 24.1 vs Washington State: 18.9
Turnovers (L5) +26.0% more
North Texas: 1.2 vs Washington State: 0.9
Total Yards (L5) +22.1% more
North Texas: 444.5 vs Washington State: 364.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSU Score 56.0 10
UNT Score 30.0 59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.1 / 18.9 25.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 162.8 / 106.2 163.0 / 64.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.57
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 444.5 / 364.1 410.0 / 275.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.9 0.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -3.6
UNT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -3.6
UNT
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
⚖️ Over/Under
WSU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.7
UNT
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNT
WSU
UNT
WSU
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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