Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Iowa State @ Arkansas St ISU @ ARST

IOWA STATE

IOWA STATEISU

3-0  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 4:00 PM ET
Centennial Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS STATE

ARKANSAS STARST

1-1  |  Home

16
Key Game
Jaylen Raynor
KEY GAME

Jaylen Raynor

#1 | Quarterback
@
Reed Linder
KEY GAME

Reed Linder

#84 | Wide Receiver
Player
Jaylen Raynor None-None
Reed Linder None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
IOWA STATE
0%
📊
ARKANSAS ST
100%
IOWA STATE --
ARKANSAS ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Iowa State)
Iowa StateISU (-3.5) 0 Arkansas StARST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Iowa State Cover

61.2%

Arkansas St Cover

38.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ISU -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)

ISU By 1-6 points

17.0%

ISU By 7-13 points

18.0%

ARST By 1-6 points

14.7%

ARST By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
28
IOWA STATE
24
ARKANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
13
IOWA STATE
31
ARKANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Iowa State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Arkansas St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Iowa State (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Sim Arkansas St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 ISU @ ARST 24 - 16
Sep 21, 2024 ARST @ ISU 7 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +43.0% more
Arkansas State: 1.4 vs Iowa State: 1.0
First Downs (L5) +12.2% more
Arkansas State: 23.1 vs Iowa State: 20.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ISU Score 28.0 24
ARST Score 24.0 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.1 / 20.6 20.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 157.5 / 146.7 160.0 / 187.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 374.8 / 358.1 382.0 / 452.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.0 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
98%TICKETS2%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ISU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +5.6
ARST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ISU Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +5.6
ARST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ISU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.1
ARST
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARST
ISU
ARST
ISU
ML
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
100% 4-0
75% 3-1-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2-1
TTL
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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