Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / South Florida @ Miami USF @ MIA

SOUTH FLORIDA

SOUTH FLORIDAUSF

2-0  |  Road

12
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 4:30 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

MIAMIMIA

2-0  |  Home

49
Key Game
Nico Gramatica
KEY GAME

Nico Gramatica

#7 | Place kicker
@
Dylan Joyce
KEY GAME

Dylan Joyce

#94 | Punter
Player
Nico Gramatica None-None
Dylan Joyce None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTH FLORIDA
100%
📊
MIAMI
0%
SOUTH FLORIDA --
MIAMI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
69.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Miami)
South FloridaUSF (-3.5) 0 MiamiMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

South Florida Cover

6.7%

Miami Cover

93.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIA -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

USF By 1-6 points

3.8%

USF By 7-13 points

1.8%

MIA By 1-6 points

7.9%

MIA By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
24
SOUTH FLORIDA
45
MIAMI
Simulated Score
17
SOUTH FLORIDA
35
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Miami Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Miami Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Miami (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Sim Miami (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 69.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 USF @ MIA 12 - 49
Sep 21, 2024 MIA @ USF 50 - 15
Sep 28, 2013 MIA @ USF 49 - 21
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +38.3% more
Miami: 26.1 vs South Florida: 18.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.2% more
Miami: 191.3 vs South Florida: 139.4
Turnovers (L5) +20.0% more
Miami: 0.8 vs South Florida: 0.6
Total Yards (L5) +19.5% more
Miami: 481.9 vs South Florida: 403.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USF Score 24.0 12
MIA Score 45.0 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 26.1 / 18.8 27.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 191.3 / 139.4 205.0 / 40.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.64 / 0.37
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 481.9 / 403.1 576.0 / 332.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.6 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USF
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
MIA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USF
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
MIA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
USF
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -10.3
MIA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
USF
MIA
USF
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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