Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Liberty @ Bowling Green LIB @ BGSU

LIBERTY

LIBERTYLIB

1-1  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 5:00 PM ET
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
View Odds Details →

BOWLING GREEN

BOWLING GREENBGSU

1-1  |  Home

23
Key Game
Bo Burklow
KEY GAME

Bo Burklow

#17 | Tight End
@
Jeremiah Scoby
KEY GAME

Jeremiah Scoby

#0 | Tight End
Player
Bo Burklow None-None
Jeremiah Scoby None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LIBERTY
100%
📊
BOWLING GREEN
0%
LIBERTY --
BOWLING GREEN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
BOWLING GREEN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Bowling Green)
LibertyLIB (-3.5) 0 Bowling GreenBGSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Liberty Cover

15.9%

Bowling Green Cover

84.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BGSU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BGSU)

LIB By 1-6 points

7.9%

LIB By 7-13 points

4.7%

BGSU By 1-6 points

12.9%

BGSU By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
13
LIBERTY
27
BOWLING GREEN
Simulated Score
17
LIBERTY
34
BOWLING GREEN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bowling Green Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Bowling Green Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bowling Green (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Sim Bowling Green (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 40.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 LIB @ BGSU 13 - 23
Sep 2, 2023 BGSU @ LIB 24 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +75.5% more
Liberty: 1.6 vs Bowling Green: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +49.0% more
Liberty: 216.2 vs Bowling Green: 110.2
Total Yards (L5) +15.8% more
Liberty: 420.9 vs Bowling Green: 354.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIB Score 13.0 13
BGSU Score 27.0 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.4 / 20.3 17.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 110.2 / 216.2 158.0 / 152.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.35 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 354.6 / 420.9 304.0 / 346.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 1.6 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
3%MONEY97%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIB Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
BGSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIB Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
BGSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
⚖️ Over/Under
LIB
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
BGSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BGSU
LIB
BGSU
LIB
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
TTL
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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