Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arkansas @ Ole Miss ARK @ MISS

ARKANSAS

ARKANSASARK

2-0  |  Road

35
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 7:00 PM ET
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
View Odds Details →

OLE MISS

OLE MISSMISS

2-0  |  Home

41
Key Game
Charlie Collins
KEY GAME

Charlie Collins

#9 | Defensive Lineman
@
Oscar Bird
KEY GAME

Oscar Bird

#33 | Punter
Player
Charlie Collins None-None
Oscar Bird None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARKANSAS
100%
📊
OLE MISS
0%
ARKANSAS --
OLE MISS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
OLE MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Ole Miss)
ArkansasARK (-3.5) 0 Ole MissMISS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arkansas Cover

23.8%

Ole Miss Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MISS -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MISS)

ARK By 1-6 points

10.7%

ARK By 7-13 points

7.3%

MISS By 1-6 points

15.3%

MISS By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
17
ARKANSAS
27
OLE MISS
Simulated Score
24
ARKANSAS
31
OLE MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ole Miss Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Ole Miss Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ole Miss (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim Ole Miss (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 ARK @ MISS 35 - 41
Nov 2, 2024 MISS @ ARK 63 - 31
Oct 7, 2023 ARK @ MISS 20 - 27
Nov 19, 2022 MISS @ ARK 27 - 42
Oct 9, 2021 ARK @ MISS 51 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +8.3% more
Ole Miss: 1.6 vs Arkansas: 1.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
Arkansas: 0.6 vs Ole Miss: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARK Score 17.0 35
MISS Score 27.0 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.8 / 25.8 25.0 / 29.0
Rushing Yards 213.5 / 231.5 118.0 / 221.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.6 0.67 / 0.75
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 527.1 / 534.8 475.0 / 526.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.5 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARK
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: -8.3
MISS Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -6.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARK
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: -8.3
MISS Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -6.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ARK
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.9
MISS
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +8.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MISS
ARK
MISS
ARK
ML
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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