Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Murray St @ Georgia St MUR @ GAST

MURRAY STATE

MURRAY STMUR

0-2  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 7:00 PM ET
Center Parc Stadium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA STATE

GEORGIA STGAST

0-2  |  Home

37
Key Game
Jerome Logan Jr.
KEY GAME

Jerome Logan Jr.

#91 | Defensive Lineman
@
Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson
KEY GAME

Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson

#1 | Defensive End
Player
Jerome Logan Jr. None-None
Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MURRAY ST
100%
📊
GEORGIA ST
0%
MURRAY ST --
GEORGIA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
GEORGIA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Georgia State)
Murray StMUR (-3.5) 0 Georgia StGAST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Murray St Cover

11.2%

Georgia St Cover

88.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around GAST -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GAST)

MUR By 1-6 points

5.9%

MUR By 7-13 points

3.2%

GAST By 1-6 points

10.7%

GAST By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
56
MURRAY STATE
73
GEORGIA STATE
Simulated Score
13
MURRAY STATE
38
GEORGIA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Georgia St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Georgia St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Georgia St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Sim Georgia St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 129.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 MUR @ GAST 21 - 37
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +66.4% more
Georgia State: 373.1 vs Murray State: 224.2
First Downs (L5) +62.4% more
Georgia State: 18.1 vs Murray State: 11.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +32.4% more
Georgia State: 129.4 vs Murray State: 97.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Georgia State: 0.3 vs Murray State: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MUR Score 56.0 21
GAST Score 73.0 37
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.1 / 11.1 18.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 129.4 / 97.7 166.0 / 123.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.2 0.45 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 373.1 / 224.2 454.0 / 282.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 2.6 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MUR
--
GAST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MUR
--
GAST Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MUR
--
GAST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GAST
MUR
GAST
MUR
ML
60% 3-2
67% 2-1
80% 4-1
67% 2-1
ATS
0% 0-5
0% 0-3
80% 4-1
0% 0-3
TTL
20% 1-4
100% 3-0
60% 3-2
100% 3-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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