Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ohio @ Ohio State OHIO @ OSU

OHIO

OHIOOHIO

1-1  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 7:00 PM ET
Ohio Stadium
View Odds Details →

OHIO STATE

OHIO STATEOSU

2-0  |  Home

37
Key Game
Magnus Haines
KEY GAME

Magnus Haines

#42 | Punter
@
Brandon Inniss
KEY GAME

Brandon Inniss

#0 | Wide Receiver
Player
Magnus Haines None-None
Brandon Inniss None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OHIO
100%
📊
OHIO STATE
0%
OHIO --
OHIO STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
OHIO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Ohio State)
OhioOHIO (-3.5) 0 Ohio StateOSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ohio Cover

9.9%

Ohio State Cover

90.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around OSU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OSU)

OHIO By 1-6 points

5.3%

OHIO By 7-13 points

2.8%

OSU By 1-6 points

10.0%

OSU By 7-13 points

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
21
OHIO
39
OHIO STATE
Simulated Score
10
OHIO
45
OHIO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ohio State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Ohio State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ohio State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
C
Sim Ohio State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 60.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 OHIO @ OSU 9 - 37
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +53.8% more
Ohio: 1.6 vs Ohio State: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.8% more
Ohio: 208.8 vs Ohio State: 177.8
First Downs (L5) +10.8% more
Ohio: 24.7 vs Ohio State: 22.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OHIO Score 21.0 9
OSU Score 39.0 37
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.1 / 24.7 28.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards 177.8 / 208.8 225.0 / 68.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 447.8 / 442.7 572.0 / 181.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.6 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
10%MONEY90%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OHIO
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
OSU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.6 ATS +/-: +1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OHIO
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
OSU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.6 ATS +/-: +1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
OHIO
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.7
OSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OSU
OHIO
OSU
OHIO
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
TTL
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
100% 5-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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