Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / New Mexico St @ Louisiana Tech NMSU @ LT

NEW MEXICO STATE

NEW MEXICO STNMSU

2-0  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 7:30 PM ET
Joe Aillet Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA TECH

LOUISIANA TECHLT

1-1  |  Home

49
Key Game
TJ Pride
KEY GAME

TJ Pride

#7 | Wide Receiver
@
Dedrick Latulas
KEY GAME

Dedrick Latulas

#3 | Wide Receiver
Player
TJ Pride None-None
Dedrick Latulas None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEW MEXICO ST
0%
📊
LOUISIANA TECH
100%
NEW MEXICO ST --
LOUISIANA TECH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (New Mexico State)
New Mexico StNMSU (-3.5) 0 Louisiana TechLT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

New Mexico St Cover

82.3%

Louisiana Tech Cover

17.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NMSU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NMSU)

NMSU By 1-6 points

13.5%

NMSU By 7-13 points

19.3%

LT By 1-6 points

8.6%

LT By 7-13 points

5.3%

AI Model Projected Score
27
NEW MEXICO STATE
14
LOUISIANA TECH
Simulated Score
31
NEW MEXICO STATE
24
LOUISIANA TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI New Mexico St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim New Mexico St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI New Mexico St (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
C
Sim New Mexico St (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 NMSU @ LT 14 - 49
Oct 15, 2024 LT @ NMSU 30 - 33
Oct 24, 2023 NMSU @ LT 27 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +65.5% more
New Mexico State: 1.4 vs Louisiana Tech: 0.5
Total Yards (L5) +29.1% more
New Mexico State: 344.0 vs Louisiana Tech: 243.9
First Downs (L5) +26.6% more
New Mexico State: 20.7 vs Louisiana Tech: 15.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
New Mexico State: 0.4 vs Louisiana Tech: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NMSU Score 27.0 14
LT Score 14.0 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.2 / 20.7 28.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 99.0 / 113.9 353.0 / 26.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.58 / 0.11
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 243.9 / 344.0 574.0 / 309.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.4 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NMSU
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
LT Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +9.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NMSU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
LT Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +9.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NMSU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -1.8
LT
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +13.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LT
NMSU
LT
NMSU
ML
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
83% 5-1
ATS
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
67% 4-2
TTL
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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