Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Air Force @ Utah State AFA @ USU

AIR FORCE

AIR FORCEAFA

1-0  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 9:45 PM ET
Maverik Stadium
View Odds Details →

UTAH STATE

UTAH STATEUSU

1-1  |  Home

49
Key Game
Jacob Medina
KEY GAME

Jacob Medina

#39 | Place kicker
@
Luke Durfey
KEY GAME

Luke Durfey

#6 | Linebacker
Player
Jacob Medina None-None
Luke Durfey None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AIR FORCE
100%
📊
UTAH STATE
0%
AIR FORCE --
UTAH STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
69.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
UTAH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Utah State)
Air ForceAFA (-3.5) 0 Utah StateUSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Air Force Cover

0.6%

Utah State Cover

99.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USU -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USU)

AFA By 1-6 points

0.4%

AFA By 7-13 points

0.1%

USU By 1-6 points

1.4%

USU By 7-13 points

4.1%

AI Model Projected Score
17
AIR FORCE
52
UTAH STATE
Simulated Score
20
AIR FORCE
27
UTAH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Utah State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Utah State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Utah State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Sim Utah State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 69.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 AFA @ USU 30 - 49
Sep 15, 2023 USU @ AFA 21 - 39
Oct 8, 2022 AFA @ USU 27 - 34
Sep 18, 2021 USU @ AFA 49 - 45
Dec 3, 2020 AFA @ USU 35 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +69.0% more
Utah State: 1.2 vs Air Force: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +36.4% more
Air Force: 270.7 vs Utah State: 172.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +32.0% more
Air Force: 0.6 vs Utah State: 0.3
Time of Possession (L5) +10.0% more
Air Force: 0.6 vs Utah State: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AFA Score 17.0 30
USU Score 52.0 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.8 / 21.7 22.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 172.2 / 270.7 186.0 / 266.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.6 0.44 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.36 / 0.64
Total Yards 379.0 / 382.3 473.0 / 445.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.5 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AFA Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
USU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AFA
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
USU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
AFA
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
USU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -14.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USU
AFA
USU
AFA
ML
60% 3-2
33% 1-2
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
ATS
60% 3-2
67% 2-1
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
TTL
20% 1-4
67% 2-1
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Jedd Fisch Hints at Offensive Line Shakeup as Landen Hatchett Ne…
yahoo 2 days, 5 hours ago
Falcons Soar Past Saints in Prime-Time Blowout: Penix, Robinson …
si 2 days, 18 hours ago
Troy Aikman Stunned by Tyler Shough's Seven-Year College Journey…
themirror 2 days, 18 hours ago
Boise State Rolls Past Utah State 37-18 in First Pac-12 Clash fo…
abcnews 4 days, 17 hours ago
Alabama's Cowbell Troll Headlines Top College Football Week 5 Ja…
espn 4 days, 23 hours ago