Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Southern @ Fresno St SOU @ FRES

SOUTHERN

SOUTHERNSOU

1-2  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 10:00 PM ET
Valley Children's Stadium
View Odds Details →

FRESNO STATE

FRESNO STFRES

2-1  |  Home

56
Key Game
Princeton Cahee
KEY GAME

Princeton Cahee

#27 | Running Back
@
Jordan Malau'ulu
KEY GAME

Jordan Malau'ulu

#10 | Wide Receiver
Player
Princeton Cahee None-None
Jordan Malau'ulu None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTHERN
100%
📊
FRESNO ST
0%
SOUTHERN --
FRESNO ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
FRESNO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Fresno State)
SouthernSOU (-3.5) 0 Fresno StFRES (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Southern Cover

9.9%

Fresno St Cover

90.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around FRES -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FRES)

SOU By 1-6 points

5.3%

SOU By 7-13 points

2.8%

FRES By 1-6 points

10.0%

FRES By 7-13 points

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
21
SOUTHERN
39
FRESNO STATE
Simulated Score
10
SOUTHERN
42
FRESNO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Fresno St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Fresno St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Fresno St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
C
Sim Fresno St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 60.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 SOU @ FRES 7 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +46.1% more
Fresno State: 346.7 vs Southern: 237.2
First Downs (L5) +37.1% more
Fresno State: 18.3 vs Southern: 13.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +30.8% more
Fresno State: 176.0 vs Southern: 134.6
Turnovers (L5) +45.8% more
Southern: 3.2 vs Fresno State: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SOU Score 21.0 7
FRES Score 39.0 56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.3 / 13.4 31.0 / 7.0
Rushing Yards 176.0 / 134.6 225.0 / 11.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.8 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 346.7 / 237.2 507.0 / 142.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 3.2 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SOU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
FRES Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +9.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SOU
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
FRES
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +9.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SOU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.7
FRES
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FRES
SOU
FRES
SOU
ML
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
100% 5-0
50% 1-1
ATS
20% 1-4
100% 2-0
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
TTL
40% 2-3
100% 2-0
40% 2-3
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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