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KANSAS STATE

KANSAS STKSU

1-2  |  Road

17
FINAL
Fri, Sep 12 • 9:00 PM ET
Arizona Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

ARIZONAARIZ

2-0  |  Home

23
Key Game
Simon McClannan
KEY GAME

Simon McClannan

#8 | Punter
@
Michael Salgado-Medina
KEY GAME

Michael Salgado-Medina

#19 | Place kicker
Player
Simon McClannan None-None
Michael Salgado-Medina None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KANSAS ST
0%
📊
ARIZONA
100%
KANSAS ST --
ARIZONA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
31.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
KANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Kansas State)
Kansas StKSU (-3.5) 0 ArizonaARIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kansas St Cover

88.8%

Arizona Cover

11.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around KSU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KSU)

KSU By 1-6 points

10.7%

KSU By 7-13 points

17.5%

ARIZ By 1-6 points

5.9%

ARIZ By 7-13 points

3.2%

AI Model Projected Score
24
KANSAS STATE
7
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
24
KANSAS STATE
28
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Kansas St Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Arizona Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Kansas St (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
B
Sim Arizona (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 31.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2025 KSU @ ARIZ 17 - 23
Sep 13, 2024 ARIZ @ KSU 7 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +56.5% more
Kansas State: 1.2 vs Arizona: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.5% more
Kansas State: 143.0 vs Arizona: 123.7
First Downs (L5) +24.3% more
Arizona: 21.3 vs Kansas State: 17.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Arizona: 0.4 vs Kansas State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KSU Score 24.0 17
ARIZ Score 7.0 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.3 / 17.2 21.0 / 8.0
Rushing Yards 123.7 / 143.0 234.0 / 105.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.44 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 390.3 / 373.4 412.0 / 193.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.2 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KSU
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +4.0
ARIZ Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KSU Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +4.0
ARIZ
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
KSU
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.5
ARIZ
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARIZ
KSU
ARIZ
KSU
ML
100% 5-0
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
ATS
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
TTL
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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