NEW YORK
METSNYM
76-67 | Road
0
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
83-60 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nolan McLean
#26 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jhoan Duran
#59 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan McLean | None-None | 1.42 | -- | 5.1 | 5 |
| Jhoan Duran | None-None | 1.86 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.42 Ldr
ERA
1.86
--
WHIP
--
5.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
METS
45%
PHILLIES
55%
METS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.7%
NYM By 3-4 runs
16.8%
PHI By 1-2 runs
15.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
10.0%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
7.07
NEW YORK
Philadelphia
5.85
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mets (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
B
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 12.9
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
PHI @ NYM
7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 10
Sep 18, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 6
Sep 17, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 0
Jul 19, 2026
NYM @ PHI
6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.705
OPS
▲
.724
204
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.5% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Walks (L5)
+22.9% more
New York: 4.4
vs
Philadelphia: 3.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+21.3% more
New York: 8.9
vs
Philadelphia: 7.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+18.8% more
New York: 4.3
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
7.1
0
PHI Score
5.9
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.2 / 7.6
7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.5
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 8.9
11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
16.4 / 14.1
7.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.4 / 4.4
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
NYM
PHI
NYM
ML
59%
97-67
50%
79-80
49%
80-84
48%
76-83
ATS
65%
107-57
58%
93-66
51%
83-81
49%
78-81
TTL
57%
88-67-9
55%
80-66-13
51%
78-76-9
51%
74-72-13
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