Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Athletics BOS @ ATH

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

79-65  |  Road

7
FINAL
Mon, Sep 8 • 10:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

66-78  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Nick Sogard
STARTING PITCHER

Nick Sogard

#20 | Second Base
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Brady Basso

#66 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Nick Sogard None-None -- -- -- --
Brady Basso None-None 0.00 -- 2.1 4
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 0.00
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 2.1
-- K (Strikeouts) 4
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
59%
📊
ATHLETICS
41%
RED SOX --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 53%
Under 0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Athletics)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

48.9%

Athletics Cover

51.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

BOS By 1-2 runs

18.2%

BOS By 3-4 runs

13.2%

ATH By 1-2 runs

18.6%

ATH By 3-4 runs

13.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.59
BOSTON
4.7
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
3
BOSTON
5
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Athletics Loss
41% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletics (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.1
C
Sim Athletics (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 ATH @ BOS 4 - 3
Aug 8, 2026 ATH @ BOS 7 - 3
Aug 7, 2026 ATH @ BOS 1 - 13
Jul 30, 2026 BOS @ ATH 5 - 4
Jul 29, 2026 BOS @ ATH 4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Athletics ATH
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.409
OPS
▲ .719
2
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +9600.0% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +331.0% more
Athletics: 4.3 vs Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +187.0% more
Athletics: 2.2 vs Boston: 0.3
Total Bases (L5) +61.0% more
Athletics: 19.0 vs Boston: 11.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 4.6 7
ATH Score 4.7 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.7 / 8.6 3.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 2.2 / 0.3 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 7.1 8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 19.0 / 11.8 4.0 / 20.0
Walks 3.6 / 3.4 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
6%MONEY94%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
ATH Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
BOS
ATH
BOS
ML
59% 95-67
50% 80-80
54% 87-74
47% 76-87
ATS
52% 84-78
58% 93-67
50% 81-80
48% 79-84
TTL
54% 84-73-5
46% 72-83-5
42% 66-90-5
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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