SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
77-65 | Road
8
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
40-102 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Adrian Morejon
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tanner Gordon
#29 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Morejon | None-None | 1.79 | -- | 2.0 | -- |
| Tanner Gordon | None-None | 6.60 | -- | 3.2 | 5 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.79 Ldr
ERA
6.60
--
WHIP
--
2.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 3.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
75%
ROCKIES
25%
PADRES
--
ROCKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
59%
Under 0
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
18.5%
COL By 1-2 runs
13.5%
COL By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
5.67
SAN DIEGO
Colorado
3.65
COLORADO
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Colorado
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Win
75% Win Prob
B
Sim
Rockies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Rockies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
SD @ COL
9 - 2
Sep 16, 2026
SD @ COL
9 - 3
Sep 15, 2026
SD @ COL
3 - 9
Sep 14, 2026
SD @ COL
8 - 7
Jul 29, 2026
COL @ SD
1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Colorado
COL
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.64
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.254
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.417
.925
▲
OPS
.739
4
Home Runs
▲
180
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+82.0% more
San Diego: 0.9
vs
Colorado: 0.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+22.7% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Colorado: 4.6
OPS (Season)
+18.6%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Colorado: 73.9%
Walks (L5)
+18.0% more
San Diego: 3.8
vs
Colorado: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
5.7
8
COL Score
3.7
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.3 / 9.8
6.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.9
0.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 9.1
9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
17.4 / 14.2
7.0 / 30.0
Walks
3.1 / 3.8
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
SD
COL
SD
ML
60%
97-64
51%
85-83
55%
88-73
51%
85-82
ATS
60%
97-64
54%
91-77
52%
83-78
55%
92-75
TTL
60%
93-62-6
51%
82-80-6
50%
77-78-6
54%
86-74-6
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