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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

56-84  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

81-60  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Clayton Beeter
STARTING PITCHER

Clayton Beeter

#39 | Relief Pitcher
@
Matthew Boyd
STARTING PITCHER

Matthew Boyd

#16 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Clayton Beeter None-None 5.19 -- 1.0 --
Matthew Boyd None-None 2.92 -- 7.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
5.19 ERA Ldr 2.92
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
33%
📊
CUBS
67%
NATIONALS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.2
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.2 points (Chicago)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

21.5%

Cubs Cover

78.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -3.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

WSH By 1-2 runs

10.2%

WSH By 3-4 runs

5.1%

CHC By 1-2 runs

18.1%

CHC By 3-4 runs

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
2.06
WASHINGTON
5.22
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Loss
67% Win Prob
C
Sim Cubs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.2
D
Sim Cubs (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 13, 2026 CHC @ WSH 0 - 7
Aug 12, 2026 CHC @ WSH 12 - 6
Aug 11, 2026 CHC @ WSH 8 - 6
Mar 29, 2026 WSH @ CHC 6 - 3
Mar 28, 2026 WSH @ CHC 2 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.744 ▲
OPS
.374
210 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +60.8% more
Chicago: 1.9 vs Washington: 1.2
Strikeouts (L5) +18.0% more
Chicago: 9.0 vs Washington: 7.7
Home Runs (Season) +100.0% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +90.1% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 2.1 2
CHC Score 5.2 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 7.6 3.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 1.2 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 7.7 7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 15.4 / 14.4 4.0 / 11.0
Walks 2.5 / 4.5 0.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
WSH
CHC
WSH
ML
58% 93-68
57% 92-69
51% 82-79
54% 87-74
ATS
61% 97-63-1
58% 93-68
47% 75-85-1
57% 91-70
TTL
52% 81-74-6
50% 77-78-6
46% 72-83-6
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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