Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Rockies SD @ COL

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

76-65  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 8:10 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

40-101  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Mason Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Miller

#22 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jimmy Herget
STARTING PITCHER

Jimmy Herget

#44 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mason Miller None-None 3.14 -- 1.1 2
Jimmy Herget None-None 2.50 -- 1.2 2
None-None W-L None-None
3.14 ERA Ldr 2.50
-- WHIP --
1.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.2
2 K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
75%
📊
ROCKIES
25%
PADRES --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (San Diego)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

72.9%

Rockies Cover

27.1%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

SD By 1-2 runs

19.2%

SD By 3-4 runs

19.1%

COL By 1-2 runs

12.3%

COL By 3-4 runs

6.7%

AI Model Projected Score
5.7
SAN DIEGO
3.26
COLORADO
Simulated Score
3
SAN DIEGO
4
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Padres Win
75% Win Prob
B
Sim Rockies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Padres (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.4
D
Sim Rockies (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 SD @ COL 9 - 2
Sep 16, 2026 SD @ COL 9 - 3
Sep 15, 2026 SD @ COL 3 - 9
Sep 14, 2026 SD @ COL 8 - 7
Jul 29, 2026 COL @ SD 1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Colorado COL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.64
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.254
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.417
.925 ▲
OPS
.739
4
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +74.0% more
San Diego: 0.8 vs Colorado: 0.1
Walks (L5) +42.9% more
San Diego: 4.8 vs Colorado: 2.7
Runs per Game (Season) +22.7% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Colorado: 4.6
Strikeouts (L5) +21.3% more
San Diego: 10.1 vs Colorado: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 5.7 10
COL Score 3.3 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.9 / 6.7 14.0 / 16.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.8 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 10.1 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.7 / 10.3 25.0 / 22.0
Walks 2.7 / 4.8 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
96%MONEY4%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
SD
COL
SD
ML
60% 97-64
51% 85-83
55% 88-73
51% 85-82
ATS
60% 97-64
54% 91-77
52% 83-78
55% 92-75
TTL
60% 93-62-6
51% 82-80-6
50% 77-78-6
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 1 hour, 13 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 1 hour, 21 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 1 hour, 24 minutes ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 13 hours, 27 minutes ago
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 19 hours, 8 minutes ago