WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
56-83 | Road
5
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
80-60 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Orlando Ribalta
#64 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Thielbar
#24 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Ribalta | None-None | 6.05 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
| Caleb Thielbar | None-None | 2.15 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.05
ERA
Ldr 2.15
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
34%
CUBS
66%
NATIONALS
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
WSH By 1-2 runs
13.9%
WSH By 3-4 runs
8.1%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CHC By 3-4 runs
18.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
2.44
WASHINGTON
Chicago
4.33
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Win
66% Win Prob
C
Sim
Cubs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cubs (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.9
D
Sim
Cubs (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.8
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
CHC @ WSH
0 - 7
Aug 12, 2026
CHC @ WSH
12 - 6
Aug 11, 2026
CHC @ WSH
8 - 6
Mar 29, 2026
WSH @ CHC
6 - 3
Mar 28, 2026
WSH @ CHC
2 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.744
▲
OPS
.374
210
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+90.1% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Errors (L5)
+84.0% more
Washington: 1.0
vs
Chicago: 0.1
OPS (Season)
+37.0%
Washington: 74.4%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
2.4
5
CHC Score
4.3
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 1.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.1 / 8.5
10.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.3
4.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 9.0
9.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
11.2 / 14.6
24.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.7 / 2.8
2.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
WSH
CHC
WSH
ML
58%
93-68
57%
92-69
51%
82-79
54%
87-74
ATS
61%
97-63-1
58%
93-68
47%
75-85-1
57%
91-70
TTL
52%
81-74-6
50%
77-78-6
46%
72-83-6
42%
65-90-6
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