Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Rockies SD @ COL

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

76-64  |  Road

0
FINAL
Fri, Sep 5 • 8:40 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

39-101  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Jake Cronenworth
STARTING PITCHER

Jake Cronenworth

#9 | Second Base
@
Kyle Freeland
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Freeland

#21 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jake Cronenworth None-None -- -- -- --
Kyle Freeland None-None 5.10 -- 8.0 10
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 5.10
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 8.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 10
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
75%
📊
ROCKIES
25%
PADRES --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (San Diego)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

77.3%

Rockies Cover

22.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

SD By 1-2 runs

18.4%

SD By 3-4 runs

19.6%

COL By 1-2 runs

10.6%

COL By 3-4 runs

5.4%

AI Model Projected Score
6.09
SAN DIEGO
3.09
COLORADO
Simulated Score
6
SAN DIEGO
4
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Loss
75% Win Prob
B
Sim Padres Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim Padres (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 SD @ COL 9 - 2
Sep 16, 2026 SD @ COL 9 - 3
Sep 15, 2026 SD @ COL 3 - 9
Sep 14, 2026 SD @ COL 8 - 7
Jul 29, 2026 COL @ SD 1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Colorado COL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.64
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.254
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.417
.925 ▲
OPS
.739
4
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +66.9% more
San Diego: 1.2 vs Colorado: 0.4
Errors (L5) +61.0% more
San Diego: 0.7 vs Colorado: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5) +35.0% more
San Diego: 10.7 vs Colorado: 6.9
Walks (L5) +30.5% more
San Diego: 5.1 vs Colorado: 3.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 6.1 0
COL Score 3.1 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.3 / 8.6 9.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 1.2 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 10.7 10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 14.0 / 13.5 13.0 / 4.0
Walks 3.6 / 5.1 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
94%MONEY6%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
SD
COL
SD
ML
60% 97-64
51% 85-83
55% 88-73
51% 85-82
ATS
60% 97-64
54% 91-77
52% 83-78
55% 92-75
TTL
60% 93-62-6
51% 82-80-6
50% 77-78-6
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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