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ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

64-76  |  Road

1
FINAL
Wed, Sep 3 • 7:45 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

69-71  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Jeffrey Springs
STARTING PITCHER

Jeffrey Springs

#59 | Starting Pitcher
@
Kyle Leahy
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Leahy

#62 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jeffrey Springs None-None 4.13 -- 6.0 4
Kyle Leahy None-None 3.01 -- 2.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
4.13 ERA Ldr 3.01
-- WHIP --
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 2.0
4 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
46%
📊
CARDINALS
54%
ATHLETICS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Athletics)
AthleticsATH (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

77.0%

Cardinals Cover

23.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

ATH By 1-2 runs

18.5%

ATH By 3-4 runs

19.6%

STL By 1-2 runs

10.7%

STL By 3-4 runs

5.5%

AI Model Projected Score
6.48
ATHLETICS
3.52
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
5
ATHLETICS
3
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Athletics Loss
46% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletics (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Sim Athletics (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 14, 2026 STL @ ATH 5 - 4
May 13, 2026 STL @ ATH 2 - 6
May 12, 2026 STL @ ATH 6 - 4
Sep 3, 2025 ATH @ STL 1 - 5
Sep 2, 2025 ATH @ STL 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 4.44
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.719 ▲
OPS
.691
194 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +29.0% more
Athletics: 15.9 vs St. Louis: 11.3
Hits (L5) +27.9% more
Athletics: 9.1 vs St. Louis: 6.6
Strikeouts (L5) +26.2% more
Athletics: 8.1 vs St. Louis: 6.0
Home Runs (Season) +13.9% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs St. Louis: 167.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 6.5 1
STL Score 3.5 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.6 / 9.1 7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.0 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.0 / 8.1 10.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 11.3 / 15.9 12.0 / 14.0
Walks 3.3 / 2.6 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
ATH
STL
ATH
ML
53% 85-74
59% 95-67
52% 84-77
54% 87-74
ATS
56% 89-70
52% 84-78
53% 85-76
50% 81-80
TTL
46% 68-81-10
54% 84-73-5
50% 76-75-10
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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