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IOWA

IOWAIOWA

1-0  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 12:00 PM ET
Jack Trice Stadium
View Odds Details →

IOWA STATE

IOWA STATEISU

2-0  |  Home

16
Key Game
Kenneth Merrieweather
KEY GAME

Kenneth Merrieweather

#44 | Defensive Lineman
@
Kyle Konrardy
KEY GAME

Kyle Konrardy

#97 | Place kicker
Player
Kenneth Merrieweather None-None
Kyle Konrardy None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
IOWA
0%
📊
IOWA STATE
100%
IOWA --
IOWA STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Iowa)
IowaIOWA (-3.5) 0 Iowa StateISU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Iowa Cover

54.1%

Iowa State Cover

45.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around IOWA -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IOWA)

IOWA By 1-6 points

16.8%

IOWA By 7-13 points

16.4%

ISU By 1-6 points

16.0%

ISU By 7-13 points

14.2%

AI Model Projected Score
31.94
IOWA
30.51
IOWA STATE
Simulated Score
17
IOWA
20
IOWA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Iowa Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Iowa State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Iowa (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.4
C
Sim Iowa State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 62.5
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 37.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 ISU @ IOWA 13 - 16
Sep 6, 2025 IOWA @ ISU 13 - 16
Sep 7, 2024 ISU @ IOWA 20 - 19
Sep 9, 2023 IOWA @ ISU 20 - 13
Sep 10, 2022 ISU @ IOWA 10 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +20.0% more
Iowa: 210.0 vs Iowa State: 168.0
First Downs (L5) +46.9% more
Iowa State: 23.9 vs Iowa: 16.3
Total Yards (L5) +35.9% more
Iowa State: 418.2 vs Iowa: 307.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Iowa State: 0.5 vs Iowa: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IOWA Score 31.9 13
ISU Score 30.5 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.9 / 16.3 14.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 168.0 / 210.0 104.0 / 131.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.53 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 418.2 / 307.8 238.0 / 214.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IOWA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +3.7
ISU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +5.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IOWA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +3.7
ISU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +5.6
⚖️ Over/Under
IOWA
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -2.7
ISU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ISU
IOWA
ISU
IOWA
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
75% 3-1-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2-1
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
0% 0-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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