Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Liberty @ Jax State LIB @ JXST

LIBERTY

LIBERTYLIB

1-0  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 12:00 PM ET
AmFirst Stadium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE STATE

JAX STATEJXST

0-1  |  Home

34
Key Game
Micah Pollard
KEY GAME

Micah Pollard

#4 | Linebacker
@
Conor Donaghy
KEY GAME

Conor Donaghy

#87 | Punter
Player
Micah Pollard None-None
Conor Donaghy None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LIBERTY
0%
📊
JAX STATE
100%
LIBERTY --
JAX STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
LIBERTY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Liberty)
LibertyLIB (-3.5) 0 Jax StateJXST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Liberty Cover

58.5%

Jax State Cover

41.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around LIB -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LIB)

LIB By 1-6 points

17.0%

LIB By 7-13 points

17.5%

JXST By 1-6 points

15.3%

JXST By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
28.77
LIBERTY
25.77
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Simulated Score
20
LIBERTY
34
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Liberty Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Jax State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Liberty (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Sim Jax State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 54.5
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 LIB @ JXST 24 - 34
Oct 30, 2024 JXST @ LIB 31 - 21
Oct 10, 2023 LIB @ JXST 31 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +21.7% more
Liberty: 1.4 vs Jacksonville State: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +11.7% more
Liberty: 224.8 vs Jacksonville State: 198.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Liberty: 0.4 vs Jacksonville State: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +8.5% more
Jacksonville State: 395.4 vs Liberty: 364.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIB Score 28.8 24
JXST Score 25.8 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.7 / 20.5 18.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 198.5 / 224.8 338.0 / 199.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.57 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 395.4 / 364.4 390.0 / 534.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.4 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIB Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
JXST
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIB Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
JXST
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
LIB
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
JXST
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JXST
LIB
JXST
LIB
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
100% 6-0
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
67% 4-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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