Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / N'Western St @ Minnesota NWST @ MINN

NORTHWESTERN STATE

N'WESTERN STNWST

1-0  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 12:00 PM ET
Huntington Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

MINNESOTAMINN

1-0  |  Home

66
Key Game
Cooper Evans
KEY GAME

Cooper Evans

#17 | Place kicker
@
Daniel Jackson
KEY GAME

Daniel Jackson

#36 | Place kicker
Player
Cooper Evans None-None
Daniel Jackson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
N'WESTERN ST
100%
📊
MINNESOTA
0%
N'WESTERN ST --
MINNESOTA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
39.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.4
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.4 points (Minnesota)
N'Western StNWST (-3.5) 0 MinnesotaMINN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

N'Western St Cover

37.6%

Minnesota Cover

62.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MINN -4.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MINN)

NWST By 1-6 points

14.5%

NWST By 7-13 points

11.7%

MINN By 1-6 points

16.9%

MINN By 7-13 points

18.3%

AI Model Projected Score
17.49
NORTHWESTERN STATE
21.91
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
7
NORTHWESTERN STATE
48
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Minnesota Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Minnesota Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Minnesota (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.4
C
Sim Minnesota (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -41.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 39.4
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 NWST @ MINN 0 - 66
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +93.4% more
Minnesota: 23.0 vs Northwestern State: 11.9
Total Yards (L5) +52.6% more
Minnesota: 386.2 vs Northwestern State: 253.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +42.1% more
Minnesota: 143.9 vs Northwestern State: 101.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +22.0% more
Minnesota: 0.5 vs Northwestern State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NWST Score 17.5 0
MINN Score 21.9 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.0 / 11.9 25.0 / 2.0
Rushing Yards 143.9 / 101.3 258.0 / 19.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.33 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 386.2 / 253.1 484.0 / 42.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 2.2 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NWST
--
MINN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NWST
--
MINN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NWST
--
MINN
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MINN
NWST
MINN
NWST
ML
40% 2-3
100% 1-0
80% 4-1
100% 1-0
ATS
60% 3-2
0% 0-1
40% 2-3
0% 0-1
TTL
60% 3-2
0% 0-1
20% 1-4
0% 0-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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