Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / FIU @ Penn State FIU @ PSU

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

FIUFIU

1-0  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 12:00 PM ET
Beaver Stadium
View Odds Details →

PENN STATE

PENN STATEPSU

1-0  |  Home

34
Key Game
Kenton Simmons
KEY GAME

Kenton Simmons

#5 | Defensive Lineman
@
Ryan Barker
KEY GAME

Ryan Barker

#94 | Place kicker
Player
Kenton Simmons None-None
Ryan Barker None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FIU
100%
📊
PENN STATE
0%
FIU --
PENN STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
84.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.8
PENN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.8 points (Penn State)
FIUFIU (-3.5) 0 Penn StatePSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

FIU Cover

11.5%

Penn State Cover

88.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PSU -16.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PSU)

FIU By 1-6 points

6.0%

FIU By 7-13 points

3.3%

PSU By 1-6 points

10.9%

PSU By 7-13 points

17.6%

AI Model Projected Score
33.75
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
50.52
PENN STATE
Simulated Score
10
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
45
PENN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Penn State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Penn State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Penn State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.8
C
Sim Penn State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 84.3
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 FIU @ PSU 0 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +31.0% more
Florida International: 1.0 vs Penn State: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FIU Score 33.8 0
PSU Score 50.5 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.5 / 22.1 20.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 185.6 / 172.8 209.0 / 141.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.25 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 400.8 / 422.9 409.0 / 290.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.0 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FIU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: -0.1
PSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FIU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: -0.1
PSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 16.0 ATS +/-: -4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
FIU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -22.1
PSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
FIU
PSU
FIU
ML
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Bryce Young Returns to Tuscaloosa as ESPN College GameDay Guest …
yahoo 5 hours, 44 minutes ago
USC Football Cranks Up Volume to Simulate Penn State's White Out
headtopics 1 day, 18 hours ago
Penn State's Season in Turmoil After Consecutive Losses
yahoo 3 days, 12 hours ago
Penn State's Second Straight Loss Exposes Alarming Statistical T…
yahoo 5 days, 12 hours ago
Northwestern Thrashes Penn State 34-13 in New Ryan Field Debut: …
usatoday 5 days, 18 hours ago