Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Idaho St @ New Mexico IDST @ UNM

IDAHO STATE

IDAHO STIDST

0-2  |  Road

22
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 3:00 PM ET
University Stadium (NM)
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO

NEW MEXICOUNM

0-1  |  Home

32
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Collin Lewis

#97 | Defensive Lineman
@
C.J. Johnson
KEY GAME

C.J. Johnson

#11 | Linebacker
Player
Collin Lewis None-None
C.J. Johnson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
IDAHO ST
100%
📊
NEW MEXICO
0%
IDAHO ST --
NEW MEXICO --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (New Mexico)
Idaho StIDST (-3.5) 0 New MexicoUNM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Idaho St Cover

43.2%

New Mexico Cover

56.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UNM -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)

IDST By 1-6 points

15.6%

IDST By 7-13 points

13.5%

UNM By 1-6 points

16.9%

UNM By 7-13 points

17.1%

AI Model Projected Score
23.36
IDAHO STATE
25.75
NEW MEXICO
Simulated Score
10
IDAHO STATE
45
NEW MEXICO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI New Mexico Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim New Mexico Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI New Mexico (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.4
C
Sim New Mexico (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 49.1
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 IDST @ UNM 22 - 32
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +109.9% more
New Mexico: 222.6 vs Idaho State: 106.0
Turnovers (L5) +37.7% more
Idaho State: 2.7 vs New Mexico: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IDST Score 23.4 22
UNM Score 25.8 32
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.5 / 24.1 20.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 222.6 / 106.0 216.0 / 121.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.46 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 423.7 / 408.1 371.0 / 386.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 2.7 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
23%MONEY77%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IDST
--
UNM Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IDST
--
UNM Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 32.8 ATS +/-: +19.3
⚖️ Over/Under
IDST
--
UNM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
IDST
UNM
IDST
ML
100% 4-0
50% 1-1
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
ATS
25% 1-3
100% 2-0
20% 1-4
100% 2-0
TTL
50% 2-2
0% 0-2
40% 2-3
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Hurricane Isaias Puts Bengals-Dolphins Clash on Weather Watch
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Football's Unmatched Grip on Live Television: Why the NFL Still …
yahoo 1 week, 6 days ago
Joe Burrow Cleared to Start for Bengals in Week 2; Tua Tagovailo…
yahoo 2 weeks, 4 days ago
Brent Venables Makes Early Arrival at Owen Field as Oklahoma Pre…
si 2 weeks, 4 days ago
Oklahoma Sooners vs. New Mexico Lobos: Staff Predictions and Ana…
yahoo 2 weeks, 6 days ago