Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / North Texas @ W Michigan UNT @ WMU

NORTH TEXAS

NORTH TEXASUNT

1-0  |  Road

33
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 3:30 PM ET
Waldo Stadium
View Odds Details →

WESTERN MICHIGAN

W MICHIGANWMU

0-1  |  Home

30
Key Game
Brayden Knox
KEY GAME

Brayden Knox

#42 | Defensive Lineman
@
Ryan Millmore
KEY GAME

Ryan Millmore

#25 | Punter
Player
Brayden Knox None-None
Ryan Millmore None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTH TEXAS
100%
📊
W MICHIGAN
0%
NORTH TEXAS --
W MICHIGAN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Western Michigan)
North TexasUNT (-3.5) 0 W MichiganWMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

North Texas Cover

43.0%

W Michigan Cover

57.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WMU -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WMU)

UNT By 1-6 points

15.5%

UNT By 7-13 points

13.4%

WMU By 1-6 points

16.9%

WMU By 7-13 points

17.1%

AI Model Projected Score
21.79
NORTH TEXAS
24.25
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
24
NORTH TEXAS
28
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI W Michigan Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim W Michigan Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI W Michigan (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.5
C
Sim W Michigan (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 46.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 UNT @ WMU 33 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +49.1% more
North Texas: 1.8 vs Western Michigan: 0.9
Total Yards (L5) +37.1% more
North Texas: 463.8 vs Western Michigan: 291.8
First Downs (L5) +32.0% more
North Texas: 23.7 vs Western Michigan: 16.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +26.1% more
North Texas: 153.2 vs Western Michigan: 113.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNT Score 21.8 33
WMU Score 24.3 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.1 / 23.7 18.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 113.1 / 153.2 216.0 / 182.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 291.8 / 463.8 303.0 / 406.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.8 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
18%MONEY82%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNT
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
WMU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
WMU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UNT
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.5
WMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WMU
UNT
WMU
UNT
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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