Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Kansas @ Missouri KU @ MIZ

KANSAS

KANSASKU

2-0  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 3:30 PM ET
Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI

MISSOURIMIZ

1-0  |  Home

42
Key Game
Tate Nagy
KEY GAME

Tate Nagy

#11 | Wide Receiver
@
Brian Huff
KEY GAME

Brian Huff

#17 | Linebacker
Player
Tate Nagy None-None
Brian Huff None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KANSAS
50%
📊
MISSOURI
50%
KANSAS --
MISSOURI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
70.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.7
MISSOURI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.6 points (Missouri)
KansasKU (-3.5) 0 MissouriMIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kansas Cover

6.1%

Missouri Cover

93.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIZ -21.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIZ)

KU By 1-6 points

3.5%

KU By 7-13 points

1.6%

MIZ By 1-6 points

7.4%

MIZ By 7-13 points

14.1%

AI Model Projected Score
24.61
KANSAS
46.26
MISSOURI
Simulated Score
24
KANSAS
31
MISSOURI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Missouri Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Missouri Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Missouri (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.7
D
Sim Missouri (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 70.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 11, 2026 MIZ @ KU 38 - 21
Sep 6, 2025 KU @ MIZ 31 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Missouri: 0.5 vs Kansas: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +81.3% more
Kansas: 1.3 vs Missouri: 0.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +28.1% more
Kansas: 237.4 vs Missouri: 170.6
Total Yards (L5) +11.7% more
Kansas: 495.3 vs Missouri: 437.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KU Score 24.6 31
MIZ Score 46.3 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.3 / 25.0 28.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 170.6 / 237.4 261.0 / 31.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.53 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.67 / 0.33
Total Yards 437.5 / 495.3 595.0 / 254.0
Turnovers 0.2 / 1.3 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +4.9
MIZ Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KU Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +4.9
MIZ
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
KU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.5
MIZ
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIZ
KU
MIZ
KU
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
ATS
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
0% 0-4
TTL
20% 1-4
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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