Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ole Miss @ Kentucky MISS @ UK

OLE MISS

OLE MISSMISS

1-0  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 3:30 PM ET
Kroger Field
View Odds Details →

KENTUCKY

KENTUCKYUK

1-0  |  Home

23
Key Game
Oscar Bird
KEY GAME

Oscar Bird

#33 | Punter
@
Jacob Kauwe
KEY GAME

Jacob Kauwe

#91 | Place kicker
Player
Oscar Bird None-None
Jacob Kauwe None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OLE MISS
0%
📊
KENTUCKY
100%
OLE MISS --
KENTUCKY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
64.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
OLE MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Ole Miss)
Ole MissMISS (-3.5) 0 KentuckyUK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ole Miss Cover

51.6%

Kentucky Cover

48.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MISS -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MISS)

MISS By 1-6 points

16.6%

MISS By 7-13 points

15.8%

UK By 1-6 points

16.3%

UK By 7-13 points

14.9%

AI Model Projected Score
32.28
OLE MISS
31.73
KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
34
OLE MISS
28
KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ole Miss Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Ole Miss Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ole Miss (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.6
C
Sim Ole Miss (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 64.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 MISS @ UK 30 - 23
Sep 28, 2024 UK @ MISS 20 - 17
Oct 1, 2022 UK @ MISS 19 - 22
Oct 3, 2020 MISS @ UK 42 - 41
Nov 4, 2017 MISS @ UK 37 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +41.6% more
Ole Miss: 563.1 vs Kentucky: 328.7
First Downs (L5) +36.1% more
Ole Miss: 27.2 vs Kentucky: 17.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +21.8% more
Ole Miss: 210.2 vs Kentucky: 164.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +19.0% more
Ole Miss: 0.5 vs Kentucky: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MISS Score 32.3 30
UK Score 31.7 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.4 / 27.2 18.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 164.4 / 210.2 172.0 / 220.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.31 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 328.7 / 563.1 359.0 / 455.0
Turnovers 2.7 / 1.4 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MISS
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -6.1
UK Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MISS
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -6.1
UK Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MISS
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +8.3
UK
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UK
MISS
UK
MISS
ML
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
20% 1-4
100% 4-0
ATS
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
0% 0-5
50% 2-2
TTL
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Pete Golding Emphasizes Execution Over Scheme Change as Ole Miss…
si 1 day ago
Florida Gators Seek Redemption After Blowout Loss, Turn Focus to…
yourvalley_net 1 day, 12 hours ago
Missouri Freshman Lineman Johnnie DJ Jones Awaits Heart Transpla…
news29 1 day, 17 hours ago
Jadan Baugh's 13-Yard Dud vs Missouri Sparks Apology Tour and Ga…
si 2 days, 23 hours ago
Pat McAfee Pledges $1 Million to Iowa Children's Hospital After …
awfulannouncing 3 days ago