Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Fresno St @ Oregon St FRES @ ORST

FRESNO STATE

FRESNO STFRES

1-1  |  Road

36
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 3:30 PM ET
Reser Stadium
View Odds Details →

OREGON STATE

OREGON STORST

0-1  |  Home

27
Key Game
Jordan Malau'ulu
KEY GAME

Jordan Malau'ulu

#10 | Wide Receiver
@
Caleb Ojeda
KEY GAME

Caleb Ojeda

#28 | Place kicker
Player
Jordan Malau'ulu None-None
Caleb Ojeda None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FRESNO ST
100%
📊
OREGON ST
0%
FRESNO ST --
OREGON ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
35.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
OREGON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Oregon State)
Fresno StFRES (-3.5) 0 Oregon StORST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fresno St Cover

43.4%

Oregon St Cover

56.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ORST -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORST)

FRES By 1-6 points

15.6%

FRES By 7-13 points

13.5%

ORST By 1-6 points

16.9%

ORST By 7-13 points

17.0%

AI Model Projected Score
16.63
FRESNO STATE
18.94
OREGON STATE
Simulated Score
24
FRESNO STATE
31
OREGON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Oregon St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Oregon St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Oregon St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.3
C
Sim Oregon St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 35.6
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 FRES @ ORST 36 - 27
Sep 10, 2022 ORST @ FRES 35 - 32
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +32.6% more
Fresno State: 165.5 vs Oregon State: 111.6
Turnovers (L5) +29.4% more
Fresno State: 2.1 vs Oregon State: 1.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
Fresno State: 0.5 vs Oregon State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FRES Score 16.6 36
ORST Score 18.9 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.8 / 20.0 30.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 111.6 / 165.5 140.0 / 197.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.12
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 346.4 / 361.0 528.0 / 318.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 2.1 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FRES Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +9.4
ORST
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.4 ATS +/-: +15.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FRES
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +9.4
ORST Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 13.4 ATS +/-: +15.7
⚖️ Over/Under
FRES
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.9
ORST
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORST
FRES
ORST
FRES
ML
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
ATS
75% 3-1
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
TTL
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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