Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Lindenwood @ App State LIN @ APP

LINDENWOOD

LINDENWOODLIN

0-1  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 3:30 PM ET
Kidd Brewer Stadium
View Odds Details →

APP STATE

APP STATEAPP

1-0  |  Home

20
Key Game
Will Graham
KEY GAME

Will Graham

#37 | Place kicker
@
Cam Fleming
KEY GAME

Cam Fleming

#27 | Defensive Back
Player
Will Graham None-None
Cam Fleming None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LINDENWOOD
100%
📊
APP STATE
0%
LINDENWOOD --
APP STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
31.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
APP STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (App State)
LindenwoodLIN (-3.5) 0 App StateAPP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lindenwood Cover

42.5%

App State Cover

57.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around APP -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APP)

LIN By 1-6 points

15.4%

LIN By 7-13 points

13.2%

APP By 1-6 points

16.9%

APP By 7-13 points

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
14.18
LINDENWOOD
16.82
APP STATE
Simulated Score
13
LINDENWOOD
45
APP STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI App State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim App State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI App State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.6
C
Sim App State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 31.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 LIN @ APP 13 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +134.6% more
App State: 473.9 vs Lindenwood: 202.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +125.3% more
App State: 168.9 vs Lindenwood: 75.0
First Downs (L5) +114.3% more
App State: 25.7 vs Lindenwood: 12.0
Turnovers (L5) +45.0% more
App State: 1.5 vs Lindenwood: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIN Score 14.2 13
APP Score 16.8 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.7 / 12.0 20.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 168.9 / 75.0 209.0 / -1.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.46 / 0.18
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 473.9 / 202.0 503.0 / 216.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.0 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIN
--
APP Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIN
--
APP Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LIN
--
APP
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APP
LIN
APP
LIN
ML
75% 3-1
100% 3-0
75% 3-1
100% 3-0
ATS
0% 0-4
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
TTL
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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