Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / MTSU @ Wisconsin MTSU @ WIS

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

MTSUMTSU

0-1  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 4:00 PM ET
Camp Randall Stadium
View Odds Details →

WISCONSIN

WISCONSINWIS

1-0  |  Home

42
Key Game
Ashton Logan
KEY GAME

Ashton Logan

#92 | Punter
@
Dillan Johnson
KEY GAME

Dillan Johnson

#76 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Ashton Logan None-None
Dillan Johnson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MTSU
100%
📊
WISCONSIN
0%
MTSU --
WISCONSIN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
32.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
WISCONSIN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Wisconsin)
MTSUMTSU (-3.5) 0 WisconsinWIS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

MTSU Cover

49.8%

Wisconsin Cover

50.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WIS -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIS)

MTSU By 1-6 points

16.4%

MTSU By 7-13 points

15.3%

WIS By 1-6 points

16.5%

WIS By 7-13 points

15.4%

AI Model Projected Score
16.07
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
16.15
WISCONSIN
Simulated Score
10
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
42
WISCONSIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wisconsin Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Wisconsin Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wisconsin (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.1
C
Sim Wisconsin (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 32.2
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 MTSU @ WIS 10 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +34.7% more
Wisconsin: 123.2 vs Middle Tennessee: 91.4
Turnovers (L5) +13.0% more
Wisconsin: 1.1 vs Middle Tennessee: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTSU Score 16.1 10
WIS Score 16.2 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.7 / 17.1 21.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 123.2 / 91.4 153.0 / 33.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.44 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 305.1 / 301.9 436.0 / 241.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.9 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
28%MONEY72%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
WIS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +6.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
WIS
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +6.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MTSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.9
WIS
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIS
MTSU
WIS
MTSU
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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