Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / West Virginia @ Ohio WVU @ OHIO

WEST VIRGINIA

WEST VIRGINIAWVU

1-0  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 4:00 PM ET
Peden Stadium
View Odds Details →

OHIO

OHIOOHIO

0-1  |  Home

17
Key Game
Nick Krahe
KEY GAME

Nick Krahe

#52 | Offensive Lineman
@
Magnus Haines
KEY GAME

Magnus Haines

#42 | Punter
Player
Nick Krahe None-None
Magnus Haines None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WEST VIRGINIA
100%
📊
OHIO
0%
WEST VIRGINIA --
OHIO --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
75.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.6
OHIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.6 points (Ohio)
West VirginiaWVU (-3.5) 0 OhioOHIO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

West Virginia Cover

9.3%

Ohio Cover

90.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around OHIO -18.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OHIO)

WVU By 1-6 points

5.0%

WVU By 7-13 points

2.6%

OHIO By 1-6 points

9.6%

OHIO By 7-13 points

16.4%

AI Model Projected Score
28.22
WEST VIRGINIA
46.77
OHIO
Simulated Score
17
WEST VIRGINIA
34
OHIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ohio Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Ohio Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ohio (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -18.6
C
Sim Ohio (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 75.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 WVU @ OHIO 10 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Ohio: 0.5 vs West Virginia: 0.5
Turnovers (L5) +63.8% more
West Virginia: 2.4 vs Ohio: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.1% more
West Virginia: 258.8 vs Ohio: 222.2
Total Yards (L5) +10.0% more
West Virginia: 499.3 vs Ohio: 449.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WVU Score 28.2 10
OHIO Score 46.8 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.1 / 24.2 24.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 222.2 / 258.8 182.0 / 72.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.36 / 0.15
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.67 / 0.33
Total Yards 449.6 / 499.3 429.0 / 250.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 2.4 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WVU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
OHIO
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WVU Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
OHIO
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
WVU
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.9
OHIO
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OHIO
WVU
OHIO
WVU
ML
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3-1
20% 1-4
25% 1-3-1
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2-1
100% 5-0
0% 0-4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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