Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Sacramento St @ Nevada SAC @ NEV

SACRAMENTO STATE

SACRAMENTO STSAC

0-1  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 5:00 PM ET
Mackay Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEVADA

NEVADANEV

0-1  |  Home

20
Key Game
Grant Meadors
KEY GAME

Grant Meadors

#49 | Place kicker
@
Joe McFadden
KEY GAME

Joe McFadden

#84 | Place kicker
Player
Grant Meadors None-None
Joe McFadden None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SACRAMENTO ST
100%
📊
NEVADA
0%
SACRAMENTO ST --
NEVADA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
NEVADA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Nevada)
Sacramento StSAC (-3.5) 0 NevadaNEV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sacramento St Cover

42.9%

Nevada Cover

57.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NEV -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEV)

SAC By 1-6 points

15.5%

SAC By 7-13 points

13.4%

NEV By 1-6 points

16.9%

NEV By 7-13 points

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
22.85
SACRAMENTO STATE
25.35
NEVADA
Simulated Score
17
SACRAMENTO STATE
35
NEVADA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nevada Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Nevada Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nevada (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.5
C
Sim Nevada (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 48.2
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 SAC @ NEV 17 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +24.5% more
Sacramento State: 2.7 vs Nevada: 2.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.5% more
Sacramento State: 128.3 vs Nevada: 96.9
Total Yards (L5) +23.2% more
Sacramento State: 404.1 vs Nevada: 310.6
First Downs (L5) +15.6% more
Sacramento State: 20.9 vs Nevada: 17.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 22.9 17
NEV Score 25.4 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.7 / 20.9 23.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 96.9 / 128.3 265.0 / 146.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.17
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 310.6 / 404.1 409.0 / 371.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 2.7 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: -7.2
NEV Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: -7.2
NEV Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -4.1
NEV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEV
SAC
NEV
SAC
ML
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
TTL
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
USC Linebackers Shine in Win Over Washington, Three Earn Game Ba…
sgvtribune 18 hours, 19 minutes ago
Boston College Hockey Secures Commitment from USNTDP Forward Sam…
si 1 day ago
Brent Venables Embraces Red River Rivalry Despite Struggles Agai…
si 1 day, 5 hours ago
Sportswriter's Near-Firing Over Halftime Complaint Still Resonat…
marshallnewsmessenger 6 days, 11 hours ago
At 83, Fred Fusaro Returns to Huntington to Coach Football After…
headtopics 6 days, 18 hours ago