Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Tulane @ South Alabama TULN @ USA

TULANE

TULANETULN

1-0  |  Road

33
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 7:00 PM ET
Hancock Whitney Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTH ALABAMA

SOUTH ALABAMAUSA

1-0  |  Home

31
Key Game
Dalton Hughes
KEY GAME

Dalton Hughes

#11 | Linebacker
@
Aleksi Pulkkinen
KEY GAME

Aleksi Pulkkinen

#40 | Punter
Player
Dalton Hughes None-None
Aleksi Pulkkinen None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TULANE
0%
📊
SOUTH ALABAMA
100%
TULANE --
SOUTH ALABAMA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.4
TULANE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.4 points (Tulane)
TulaneTULN (-3.5) 0 South AlabamaUSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tulane Cover

62.4%

South Alabama Cover

37.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TULN -4.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TULN)

TULN By 1-6 points

16.9%

TULN By 7-13 points

18.3%

USA By 1-6 points

14.5%

USA By 7-13 points

11.7%

AI Model Projected Score
29.06
TULANE
24.62
SOUTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
20
TULANE
27
SOUTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tulane Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim South Alabama Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tulane (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.4
C
Sim South Alabama (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 53.7
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 USA @ TULN 24 - 28
Sep 6, 2025 TULN @ USA 33 - 31
Sep 2, 2023 USA @ TULN 17 - 37
Sep 12, 2020 TULN @ USA 27 - 24
Sep 7, 2013 USA @ TULN 41 - 39
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Tulane: 0.4 vs South Alabama: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +17.5% more
South Alabama: 417.4 vs Tulane: 355.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +11.7% more
South Alabama: 197.3 vs Tulane: 176.7
First Downs (L5) +10.7% more
South Alabama: 20.7 vs Tulane: 18.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TULN Score 29.1 33
USA Score 24.6 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.7 / 18.7 23.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 197.3 / 176.7 190.0 / 241.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 417.4 / 355.1 421.0 / 406.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.4 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
98%TICKETS2%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TULN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -4.1
USA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TULN
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -4.1
USA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TULN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -8.5
USA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USA
TULN
USA
TULN
ML
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
ATS
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
TTL
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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