Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Memphis @ Georgia St MEM @ GAST

MEMPHIS

MEMPHISMEM

1-0  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 7:00 PM ET
Center Parc Stadium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA STATE

GEORGIA STGAST

0-1  |  Home

16
Key Game
Charlie Harrell
KEY GAME

Charlie Harrell

#28 | Safety
@
Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson
KEY GAME

Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson

#1 | Defensive End
Player
Charlie Harrell None-None
Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MEMPHIS
0%
📊
GEORGIA ST
100%
MEMPHIS --
GEORGIA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.2
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.2 points (Memphis)
MemphisMEM (-3.5) 0 Georgia StGAST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Memphis Cover

72.1%

Georgia St Cover

27.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MEM -8.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

MEM By 1-6 points

16.0%

MEM By 7-13 points

19.6%

GAST By 1-6 points

12.0%

GAST By 7-13 points

8.6%

AI Model Projected Score
32.41
MEMPHIS
24.19
GEORGIA STATE
Simulated Score
20
MEMPHIS
31
GEORGIA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Memphis Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Georgia St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Memphis (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.2
C
Sim Georgia St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 56.6
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 MEM @ GAST 38 - 16
Sep 14, 2018 GAST @ MEM 22 - 59
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +25.1% more
Memphis: 23.5 vs Georgia State: 17.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +25.0% more
Memphis: 0.5 vs Georgia State: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +19.6% more
Memphis: 454.4 vs Georgia State: 365.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.5% more
Memphis: 208.0 vs Georgia State: 169.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 32.4 38
GAST Score 24.2 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.6 / 23.5 19.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 169.6 / 208.0 49.0 / 205.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 365.1 / 454.4 389.0 / 401.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
85%MONEY15%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
97%MONEY3%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +6.5
GAST
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +6.5
GAST Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.1
GAST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GAST
MEM
GAST
MEM
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
0% 0-5
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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