Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Army @ Kansas St ARMY @ KSU

ARMY

ARMYARMY

0-1  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 7:00 PM ET
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS STATE

KANSAS STKSU

1-1  |  Home

21
Key Game
Dawson Jones
KEY GAME

Dawson Jones

#95 | Place kicker
@
Simon McClannan
KEY GAME

Simon McClannan

#8 | Punter
Player
Dawson Jones None-None
Simon McClannan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARMY
100%
📊
KANSAS ST
0%
ARMY --
KANSAS ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.7
KANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.7 points (Kansas State)
ArmyARMY (-3.5) 0 Kansas StKSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Army Cover

7.9%

Kansas St Cover

92.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KSU -19.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KSU)

ARMY By 1-6 points

4.4%

ARMY By 7-13 points

2.2%

KSU By 1-6 points

8.7%

KSU By 7-13 points

15.6%

AI Model Projected Score
13.16
ARMY
32.91
KANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
17
ARMY
31
KANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kansas St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Kansas St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kansas St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -19.7
C
Sim Kansas St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 46.1
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 ARMY @ KSU 24 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +23.9% more
Kansas State: 437.1 vs Army: 352.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +32.7% more
Army: 263.8 vs Kansas State: 177.5
Turnovers (L5) +26.1% more
Army: 1.8 vs Kansas State: 1.4
Time of Possession (L5) +14.0% more
Army: 0.6 vs Kansas State: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARMY Score 13.2 24
KSU Score 32.9 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.2 / 21.6 13.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 177.5 / 263.8 74.0 / 237.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.22 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.33 / 0.67
Total Yards 437.1 / 352.8 246.0 / 332.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.8 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARMY
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 13.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
KSU Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARMY
1-2-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 13.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
KSU Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ARMY
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +5.0
KSU
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KSU
ARMY
KSU
ARMY
ML
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
ATS
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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