Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Boston College @ Michigan St BC @ MSU

BOSTON COLLEGE

BOSTON COLLEGEBC

1-0  |  Road

40
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 7:30 PM ET
Spartan Stadium
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN STATE

MICHIGAN STMSU

1-0  |  Home

42
Key Game
Favor Bate
KEY GAME

Favor Bate

#41 | Defensive Lineman
@
Anelu Lafaele
KEY GAME

Anelu Lafaele

#11 | EDGE
Player
Favor Bate None-None
Anelu Lafaele None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BOSTON COLLEGE
0%
📊
MICHIGAN ST
100%
BOSTON COLLEGE --
MICHIGAN ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
BOSTON COLLEGE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Boston College)
Boston CollegeBC (-3.5) 0 Michigan StMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Boston College Cover

52.7%

Michigan St Cover

47.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BC -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BC)

BC By 1-6 points

16.7%

BC By 7-13 points

16.1%

MSU By 1-6 points

16.1%

MSU By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
26.43
BOSTON COLLEGE
25.49
MICHIGAN STATE
Simulated Score
20
BOSTON COLLEGE
27
MICHIGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Boston College Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Michigan St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Boston College (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.9
C
Sim Michigan St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 51.9
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 BC @ MSU 40 - 42
Sep 21, 2024 MSU @ BC 19 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +29.7% more
Boston College: 433.5 vs Michigan State: 305.0
First Downs (L5) +18.1% more
Boston College: 22.2 vs Michigan State: 18.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
Boston College: 0.5 vs Michigan State: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +64.0% more
Michigan State: 1.2 vs Boston College: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BC Score 26.4 40
MSU Score 25.5 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.2 / 22.2 21.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 127.8 / 122.4 149.0 / 67.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 305.0 / 433.5 380.0 / 457.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BC
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
MSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BC Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -4.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
MSU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BC
0-5-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -9.7
MSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
BC
MSU
BC
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2-1
60% 3-2
25% 1-3-1
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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