Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / GA Southern @ USC GASO @ USC

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

GA SOUTHERNGASO

0-1  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 7:30 PM ET
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
View Odds Details →

USC

USCUSC

1-0  |  Home

59
Key Game
Tripp Bryant
KEY GAME

Tripp Bryant

#95 | Place kicker
@
Ryon Sayeri
KEY GAME

Ryon Sayeri

#48 | Punter
Player
Tripp Bryant None-None
Ryon Sayeri None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GA SOUTHERN
100%
📊
USC
0%
GA SOUTHERN --
USC --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
66.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
USC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (USC)
GA SouthernGASO (-3.5) 0 USCUSC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

GA Southern Cover

21.6%

USC Cover

78.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USC -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USC)

GASO By 1-6 points

10.0%

GASO By 7-13 points

6.6%

USC By 1-6 points

14.7%

USC By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
27.77
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
38.75
USC
Simulated Score
17
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
48
USC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI USC Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim USC Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI USC (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Sim USC (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 66.5
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 GASO @ USC 20 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +51.1% more
USC: 491.2 vs Georgia Southern: 325.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +33.8% more
USC: 169.8 vs Georgia Southern: 126.9
First Downs (L5) +32.8% more
USC: 25.1 vs Georgia Southern: 18.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
USC: 0.6 vs Georgia Southern: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GASO Score 27.8 20
USC Score 38.8 59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.1 / 18.9 28.0 / 26.0
Rushing Yards 169.8 / 126.9 309.0 / 142.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.4 0.56 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 491.2 / 325.0 755.0 / 377.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 2.1 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
9%MONEY91%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GASO
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
USC Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: -7.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GASO Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
USC
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: -7.3
⚖️ Over/Under
GASO
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -4.9
USC
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USC
GASO
USC
GASO
ML
100% 6-0
80% 4-1
83% 5-1
80% 4-1
ATS
67% 4-2
20% 1-4
67% 4-2
60% 3-2
TTL
50% 3-3
0% 0-5
50% 3-3
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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