Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ball State @ Auburn BALL @ AUB

BALL STATE

BALL STATEBALL

0-1  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 7:30 PM ET
Jordan-Hare Stadium
View Odds Details →

AUBURN

AUBURNAUB

1-0  |  Home

42
Key Game
Carson Holmer
KEY GAME

Carson Holmer

#98 | Place kicker
@
Hudson Kaak
KEY GAME

Hudson Kaak

#14 | Punter
Player
Carson Holmer None-None
Hudson Kaak None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BALL STATE
100%
📊
AUBURN
0%
BALL STATE --
AUBURN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.5
AUBURN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.4 points (Auburn)
Ball StateBALL (-3.5) 0 AuburnAUB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ball State Cover

16.8%

Auburn Cover

83.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around AUB -13.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AUB)

BALL By 1-6 points

8.2%

BALL By 7-13 points

5.0%

AUB By 1-6 points

13.2%

AUB By 7-13 points

19.2%

AI Model Projected Score
18.09
BALL STATE
31.54
AUBURN
Simulated Score
10
BALL STATE
45
AUBURN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Auburn Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Auburn Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Auburn (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.5
C
Sim Auburn (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 49.6
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 BALL @ AUB 3 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +114.4% more
Auburn: 201.5 vs Ball State: 94.0
Total Yards (L5) +37.1% more
Auburn: 422.2 vs Ball State: 307.9
First Downs (L5) +33.8% more
Auburn: 23.3 vs Ball State: 17.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BALL Score 18.1 3
AUB Score 31.5 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.3 / 17.4 27.0 / 6.0
Rushing Yards 201.5 / 94.0 224.0 / -3.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.55 / 0.07
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 422.2 / 307.9 495.0 / 68.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BALL
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -18.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
AUB Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BALL Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -18.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
AUB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
BALL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +4.5
AUB
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AUB
BALL
AUB
BALL
ML
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
0% 0-5
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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