Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / McNeese @ Louisiana MCN @ UL

MCNEESE

MCNEESEMCN

1-0  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 8:00 PM ET
Cajun Field
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA

LOUISIANAUL

0-1  |  Home

34
Key Game
Jared Quenga
KEY GAME

Jared Quenga

#10 | Safety
@
Tony Sterner
KEY GAME

Tony Sterner

#95 | Place kicker
Player
Jared Quenga None-None
Tony Sterner None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MCNEESE
100%
📊
LOUISIANA
0%
MCNEESE --
LOUISIANA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
30.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
LOUISIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Louisiana)
McNeeseMCN (-3.5) 0 LouisianaUL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

McNeese Cover

41.6%

Louisiana Cover

58.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UL -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UL)

MCN By 1-6 points

15.3%

MCN By 7-13 points

13.0%

UL By 1-6 points

17.0%

UL By 7-13 points

17.4%

AI Model Projected Score
13.92
MCNEESE
16.88
LOUISIANA
Simulated Score
13
MCNEESE
35
LOUISIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Louisiana Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Louisiana Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Louisiana (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Sim Louisiana (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 30.8
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 MCN @ UL 10 - 34
Sep 10, 2016 MCN @ UL 22 - 30
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +31.9% more
Louisiana: 16.1 vs McNeese: 12.2
Total Yards (L5) +24.7% more
Louisiana: 292.6 vs McNeese: 234.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Louisiana: 0.4 vs McNeese: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +17.9% more
McNeese: 1.9 vs Louisiana: 1.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MCN Score 13.9 10
UL Score 16.9 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.1 / 12.2 25.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 136.3 / 127.9 315.0 / 47.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.36 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 292.6 / 234.7 401.0 / 238.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.9 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MCN
--
UL Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MCN
--
UL Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MCN
--
UL
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UL
MCN
UL
MCN
ML
100% 5-0
50% 1-1
100% 5-0
50% 1-1
ATS
75% 3-1-1
100% 2-0
50% 2-2-1
100% 2-0
TTL
20% 1-4
50% 1-1
40% 2-3
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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