Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / N Illinois @ Maryland NIU @ MD

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

N ILLINOISNIU

1-0  |  Road

9
FINAL
Fri, Sep 5 • 7:30 PM ET
SECU Stadium
View Odds Details →

MARYLAND

MARYLANDMD

1-0  |  Home

20
Key Game
Dev'ion Reynolds
KEY GAME

Dev'ion Reynolds

#9 | Cornerback
@
Bryce McFerson
KEY GAME

Bryce McFerson

#34 | Punter
Player
Dev'ion Reynolds None-None
Bryce McFerson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
N ILLINOIS
100%
📊
MARYLAND
0%
N ILLINOIS --
MARYLAND --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
MARYLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Maryland)
N IllinoisNIU (-3.5) 0 MarylandMD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

N Illinois Cover

46.9%

Maryland Cover

53.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MD -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MD)

NIU By 1-6 points

16.1%

NIU By 7-13 points

14.5%

MD By 1-6 points

16.7%

MD By 7-13 points

16.2%

AI Model Projected Score
19.51
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
20.6
MARYLAND
Simulated Score
17
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
31
MARYLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Maryland Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Maryland Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Maryland (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.1
B
Sim Maryland (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 40.1
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2025 NIU @ MD 9 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +54.0% more
Maryland: 1.5 vs Northern Illinois: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +45.3% more
Northern Illinois: 178.7 vs Maryland: 97.7
Time of Possession (L5) +10.0% more
Northern Illinois: 0.6 vs Maryland: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NIU Score 19.5 9
MD Score 20.6 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.1 / 19.9 21.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 97.7 / 178.7 86.0 / 180.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.33 / 0.35
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 322.3 / 329.7 340.0 / 271.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -22.5 ATS +/-: -3.1
MD Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -7.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -22.5 ATS +/-: -3.1
MD Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -7.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NIU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.3
MD
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MD
NIU
MD
NIU
ML
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
ATS
0% 0-5
50% 2-2
0% 0-5
50% 2-2
TTL
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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