Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / W Illinois @ Northwestern WIU @ NU

WESTERN ILLINOIS

W ILLINOISWIU

0-1  |  Road

7
FINAL
Fri, Sep 5 • 7:30 PM ET
Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTHWESTERN

NORTHWESTERNNU

0-1  |  Home

42
Key Game
Luke Droegemueller
KEY GAME

Luke Droegemueller

#19 | Punter
@
Mason Mayne
KEY GAME

Mason Mayne

#95 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Luke Droegemueller None-None
Mason Mayne None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
W ILLINOIS
100%
📊
NORTHWESTERN
0%
W ILLINOIS --
NORTHWESTERN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.4
NORTHWESTERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.4 points (Northwestern)
W IllinoisWIU (-3.5) 0 NorthwesternNU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

W Illinois Cover

32.3%

Northwestern Cover

67.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NU -6.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NU)

WIU By 1-6 points

13.2%

WIU By 7-13 points

10.1%

NU By 1-6 points

16.6%

NU By 7-13 points

19.1%

AI Model Projected Score
1.33
WESTERN ILLINOIS
7.76
NORTHWESTERN
Simulated Score
10
WESTERN ILLINOIS
41
NORTHWESTERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Northwestern Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Northwestern Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Northwestern (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.4
B
Sim Northwestern (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.1
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2025 WIU @ NU 7 - 42
Sep 20, 2014 WIU @ NU 7 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +161.0% more
Northwestern: 3.2 vs Western Illinois: 1.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +76.9% more
Northwestern: 77.2 vs Western Illinois: 43.6
First Downs (L5) +48.6% more
Northwestern: 18.3 vs Western Illinois: 12.3
Total Yards (L5) +31.5% more
Northwestern: 279.8 vs Western Illinois: 212.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WIU Score 1.3 7
NU Score 7.8 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.3 / 12.3 24.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 77.2 / 43.6 281.0 / 71.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.17
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 279.8 / 212.9 526.0 / 181.0
Turnovers 3.2 / 1.2 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIU
--
NU Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 16.3 ATS +/-: +17.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIU
--
NU Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 16.3 ATS +/-: +17.8
⚖️ Over/Under
WIU
--
NU
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NU
WIU
NU
WIU
ML
67% 2-1
100% 1-0
75% 3-1
100% 1-0
ATS
33% 1-2
100% 1-0
50% 2-2
100% 1-0
TTL
100% 3-0
0% 0-1
50% 2-2
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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