CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
68-68 | Road
7
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
77-62 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Justin Slaten
#63 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Smith | None-None | 3.41 | -- | -- | -- |
| Justin Slaten | None-None | 3.42 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.41 Ldr
ERA
3.42
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
45%
RED SOX
55%
GUARDIANS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
CLE By 1-2 runs
14.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
8.9%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BOS By 3-4 runs
17.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
2.85
CLEVELAND
Boston
4.45
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.3
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
CLE @ BOS
1 - 0
Sep 23, 2026
CLE @ BOS
0 - 1
Sep 22, 2026
CLE @ BOS
3 - 2
May 31, 2026
BOS @ CLE
9 - 4
May 30, 2026
BOS @ CLE
9 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.19
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.380
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.696
▲
OPS
.409
162
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+74.9% more
Boston: 10.1
vs
Cleveland: 5.8
Total Bases (L5)
+53.0% more
Boston: 15.1
vs
Cleveland: 9.9
Errors (L5)
+31.0% more
Boston: 0.4
vs
Cleveland: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+26.6% more
Boston: 9.0
vs
Cleveland: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
2.9
7
BOS Score
4.5
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.1 / 5.8
18.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.0
2.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 7.1
6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
15.1 / 9.9
30.0 / 23.0
Walks
4.2 / 3.5
0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
CLE
BOS
CLE
ML
50%
80-80
54%
87-74
47%
76-87
49%
80-82
ATS
58%
93-67
58%
93-68
48%
79-84
59%
95-67
TTL
46%
72-83-5
55%
88-71-2
47%
74-83-6
43%
69-90-2
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