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ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

64-75  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, Sep 2 • 7:45 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

68-71  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Hogan Harris
STARTING PITCHER

Hogan Harris

#36 | Relief Pitcher
@
Matt Svanson
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Svanson

#49 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Hogan Harris None-None 3.63 -- 0.2 --
Matt Svanson None-None 2.03 -- 2.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
3.63 ERA Ldr 2.03
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
47%
📊
CARDINALS
53%
ATHLETICS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.7
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.7 points (Athletics)
AthleticsATH (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

82.4%

Cardinals Cover

17.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH -3.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

ATH By 1-2 runs

17.0%

ATH By 3-4 runs

19.7%

STL By 1-2 runs

8.5%

STL By 3-4 runs

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
6.92
ATHLETICS
3.19
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
ATHLETICS
6
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Athletics Loss
47% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Athletics (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.7
C
Sim Cardinals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.1
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 14, 2026 STL @ ATH 5 - 4
May 13, 2026 STL @ ATH 2 - 6
May 12, 2026 STL @ ATH 6 - 4
Sep 3, 2025 ATH @ STL 1 - 5
Sep 2, 2025 ATH @ STL 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 4.44
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.719 ▲
OPS
.691
194 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +35.8% more
Athletics: 19.4 vs St. Louis: 12.5
Hits (L5) +34.2% more
Athletics: 11.2 vs St. Louis: 7.4
Strikeouts (L5) +22.6% more
Athletics: 9.6 vs St. Louis: 7.5
Home Runs (L5) +22.6% more
Athletics: 1.6 vs St. Louis: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 6.9 1
STL Score 3.2 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.4 / 11.2 5.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.6 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 9.6 3.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 12.5 / 19.4 9.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.9 / 3.0 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
ATH
STL
ATH
ML
53% 85-74
59% 95-67
52% 84-77
54% 87-74
ATS
56% 89-70
52% 84-78
53% 85-76
50% 81-80
TTL
46% 68-81-10
54% 84-73-5
50% 76-75-10
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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