BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
62-76 | Road
6
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
76-62 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Albert Suarez
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Yuki Matsui
#1 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Suarez | None-None | 1.93 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
| Yuki Matsui | None-None | 4.37 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.93 Ldr
ERA
4.37
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
40%
PADRES
60%
ORIOLES
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
BAL By 1-2 runs
15.8%
BAL By 3-4 runs
10.0%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
16.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
4.11
BALTIMORE
San Diego
5.31
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Padres
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
C
Sim
Padres (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 14, 2026
SD @ BAL
5 - 2
Jun 13, 2026
SD @ BAL
9 - 3
Jun 12, 2026
SD @ BAL
3 - 7
Sep 3, 2025
BAL @ SD
7 - 5
Sep 2, 2025
BAL @ SD
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
San Diego
SD
161
▲
Games Played
2
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.711
OPS
▲
.925
199
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+34.5% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Baltimore: 4.5
OPS (Season)
+21.4%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Baltimore: 71.1%
Strikeouts (L5)
+21.0% more
San Diego: 9.5
vs
Baltimore: 7.9
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.7%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Baltimore: 39.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
4.1
6
SD Score
5.3
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.8 / 10.1
6.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.0
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 7.9
11.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
12.1 / 15.9
11.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.0 / 3.4
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
BAL
SD
BAL
ML
51%
85-83
53%
83-73
51%
85-82
57%
90-69
ATS
54%
91-77
61%
95-60-1
55%
92-75
57%
90-68-1
TTL
51%
82-80-6
54%
81-70-5
54%
86-74-6
51%
78-75-6
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