TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
79-58 | Road
4
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
69-68 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brendon Little
#54 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendon Little | None-None | 3.22 | -- | -- | -- |
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 3.34 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.22 Ldr
ERA
3.34
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 0.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
57%
REDS
43%
BLUE JAYS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TOR By 3-4 runs
16.9%
CIN By 1-2 runs
15.7%
CIN By 3-4 runs
9.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
5.39
TORONTO
Cincinnati
4.14
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.3
D
Sim
Reds (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
CIN @ TOR
1 - 5
Sep 26, 2026
CIN @ TOR
5 - 1
Sep 25, 2026
CIN @ TOR
5 - 6
Sep 3, 2025
TOR @ CIN
13 - 9
Sep 2, 2025
TOR @ CIN
12 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.11
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.394
.692
OPS
▲
.699
152
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+20.0% more
Toronto: 0.9
vs
Cincinnati: 0.7
Hits (L5)
+8.6% more
Toronto: 9.7
vs
Cincinnati: 8.9
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.8%
Toronto: 24.7%
vs
Cincinnati: 22.9%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.5%
Toronto: 31.0%
vs
Cincinnati: 30.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
5.4
4
CIN Score
4.1
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.9
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.9 / 9.7
11.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.7
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
11.2 / 8.8
7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
15.4 / 13.8
16.0 / 16.0
Walks
2.8 / 1.8
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
TOR
CIN
TOR
ML
55%
88-71
46%
74-87
49%
79-81
50%
80-80
ATS
54%
86-73
56%
90-71
50%
80-80
49%
79-81
TTL
53%
81-73-5
51%
80-76-5
54%
83-72-5
45%
70-85-5
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