NEW YORK
METSNYM
73-64 | Road
10
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
80-58 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Manaea
#59 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brenan Hanifee
#75 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Manaea | None-None | 5.60 | -- | 3.2 | 6 |
| Brenan Hanifee | None-None | 3.18 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.60
ERA
Ldr 3.18
--
WHIP
--
3.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
METS
45%
TIGERS
55%
METS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
NYM By 1-2 runs
16.6%
NYM By 3-4 runs
11.0%
DET By 1-2 runs
19.5%
DET By 3-4 runs
15.9%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5.45
NEW YORK
Detroit
6.31
DETROIT
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
C
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.8
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 14, 2026
DET @ NYM
4 - 9
May 13, 2026
DET @ NYM
2 - 3
May 12, 2026
DET @ NYM
2 - 10
Sep 3, 2025
NYM @ DET
2 - 6
Sep 2, 2025
NYM @ DET
12 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Detroit
DET
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.241
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.320
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.705
OPS
▲
.720
204
▲
Home Runs
181
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+3.5% more
Detroit: 4.5
vs
New York: 4.3
OPS (Season)
+1.5%
Detroit: 72.0%
vs
New York: 70.5%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+1.0%
Detroit: 32.0%
vs
New York: 31.0%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+0.5%
Detroit: 40.0%
vs
New York: 39.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
5.5
10
DET Score
6.3
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 10.0
14.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 2.1
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 9.4
9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
11.9 / 18.9
24.0 / 15.0
Walks
2.8 / 3.3
7.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
NYM
DET
NYM
ML
54%
86-73
50%
79-80
54%
87-73
48%
76-83
ATS
64%
101-58
58%
93-66
57%
91-69
49%
78-81
TTL
46%
69-81-9
55%
80-66-13
46%
69-81-10
51%
74-72-13
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