CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
68-67 | Road
4
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
76-62 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Erik Sabrowski
#62 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Sabrowski | None-None | 2.33 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 1.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.33
ERA
Ldr 1.00
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
45%
RED SOX
55%
GUARDIANS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
CLE By 1-2 runs
15.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
9.9%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BOS By 3-4 runs
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
2.9
CLEVELAND
Boston
4.15
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
B
Sim
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.1
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
CLE @ BOS
1 - 0
Sep 23, 2026
CLE @ BOS
0 - 1
Sep 22, 2026
CLE @ BOS
3 - 2
May 31, 2026
BOS @ CLE
9 - 4
May 30, 2026
BOS @ CLE
9 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.19
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.380
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.696
▲
OPS
.409
162
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+74.7% more
Boston: 8.1
vs
Cleveland: 4.7
Walks (L5)
+74.5% more
Boston: 4.7
vs
Cleveland: 2.7
Total Bases (L5)
+58.2% more
Boston: 13.1
vs
Cleveland: 8.3
Errors (L5)
+47.0% more
Boston: 0.6
vs
Cleveland: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
2.9
4
BOS Score
4.2
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.1 / 4.7
14.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.0
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.4 / 7.6
6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 8.3
19.0 / 13.0
Walks
4.7 / 2.7
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
CLE
BOS
CLE
ML
50%
80-80
54%
87-74
47%
76-87
49%
80-82
ATS
58%
93-67
58%
93-68
48%
79-84
59%
95-67
TTL
46%
72-83-5
55%
88-71-2
47%
74-83-6
43%
69-90-2
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